A's Cahill puts unbeaten streak on the line against Orioles

Baseball Betting Lines

07/01/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Oakland Athletics young starter Trevor Cahill is making a case for the American League All-Star team and will try to keep his unbeaten streak intact tonight against the Baltimore Orioles in the finale of a three- game series from Camden Yards.

Cahill is 6-0 with a 2.24 earned run average in his last eight starts with the opposition batting only .198 over that streak. Cahill's run is a career best and he has yet to allow a run in the first inning this season. He previously pitched in Saturday's 5-0 win over the Pittsburgh Pirates and held them scoreless through 7 2/3 innings with a career-high 10 strikeouts.

The right-hander, whose last loss came on May 16 against the LA Angels of Anaheim, beat the Orioles on the road this season on May 26. Cahill lasted six innings and gave up one run to improve to 2-1 with a 2.84 ERA in three career starts against Baltimore. In 12 total starts this season, Cahill is 7-2 with a 2.88 earned run average.

Baltimore will send out a young hurler of its own for Thursday's series finale, as Jake Arrieta is slated to make his fifth career start. Arrieta broke out on the scene with consecutive wins, but is 0-1 with a 12.27 earned run average in his last two trips to the hill.

Arrieta did not record a decision versus Washington last Friday, when he gave up six runs -- five earned -- and eight hits over 4 1/3 innings of his team's 7-6 win. Overall, the righty is 2-1 with a 6.20 ERA and 1-0 in two home starts. Arrieta has never faced the Pirates.

The Orioles hope Arrieta can stay unbeaten at home as they try to win their second straight series after beating Oakland, 9-6, in Wednesday's second portion of this three-game set. After the A's took a 6-3 lead with a six-run fourth inning, the homer parade started with Ty Wigginton belting a two-run shot and Luke Scott adding a solo homer in the seventh.

Baltimore then closed out the scoring for a 9-6 advantage thanks to Miguel Tejada's two-run shot in the eighth. Corey Patterson and Adam Jones also went deep and Matt Albers was credited with the win for tossing a scoreless inning of relief. Kevin Millwood started and yielded six runs -- five earned -- on eight hits in six frames for the no-decision.

Alfredo Simon then closed the door in the ninth for his 10th save.

"We're trying to continuously play hard," Jones said. "Play the game we all know. All we can do is leave it on the field. Everybody wants to win, so we're going out there and giving all we got."

After today's game versus the Athletics, Baltimore will hit the road for 10 games against Boston, Detroit and Texas.

Oakland has lost 11 of its last 17 games and had a four-game winning streak come to an end with yesterday's 9-6 loss. Coco Crisp hit a three-run homer during a six-run fourth inning and Mark Ellis finished 3-for-4 with a run scored for the A's, who will visit Cleveland for three games after this set.

"This was a really frustrating loss," Ellis said. "We scored some runs ... When we score runs, we usually win games, and this was a tough one for us. We've got another one tomorrow, and we can still win the series."

Athletics starter Ben Sheets lasted six innings and gave up four runs -- three earned -- on seven hits with three walks and four strikeouts in the no- decision. Cedrick Bowers was tagged with the loss.

Oakland has won six of nine meetings with Baltimore this season and is 16-4 in the previous 20 contests between the clubs.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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LaDainian Tomlinson Favorite to be 2007 NFL MVP

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